MANILA, Philippines – Julian (Krathon) strengthened from a typhoon into a super typhoon early Tuesday, October 1, and also slowed down while moving away from extreme Northern Luzon.
Julian now has maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour from the previous 175 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 am on Tuesday. Its gustiness is now up to 230 km/h from 215 km/h.
As of 4 am, the super typhoon was located 205 kilometers west of Itbayat, Batanes, slowly moving west northwest. Its previous speed was 15 km/h.
Julian did not make landfall in the Philippines, but passed very close to extreme Northern Luzon.
Though it is now a super typhoon, Signal No. 3 was already lifted at 5 am, leaving only areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2. This is because Julian continues to move away from the country’s northernmost province of Batanes.
The super typhoon is still dumping rain in Northern Luzon, however, and affected areas must stay on alert for floods and landslides.
Here is PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast for Julian, issued at 5 am on Tuesday:
Tuesday, October 1
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Sur
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): mainland Cagayan, rest of Ilocos Region, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Wednesday, October 2
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
In addition, other areas in Cagayan Valley may have moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain, due to Julian on Tuesday.
The trough or extension of the super typhoon is also causing scattered rain and thunderstorms in Central Luzon, and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, and Mimaropa.
The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, this is the updated list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals:
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- northern part of Ilocos Norte (Bacarra, Pasuquin, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams)
- northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Benguet
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Pantabangan)
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the super typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte
Wednesday, October 2
- Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela
Thursday, October 3
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands
PAGASA warned Batanes and Babuyan Islands that there is still a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 7 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough seas are expected in the seaboards of Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) and the seaboard of northern Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas will persist in the seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3 meters high), and the seaboard of northern Aurora and northern Zambales (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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PAGASA expects Julian to “recurve towards the sea southwest of Taiwan” from Tuesday to early Wednesday morning, October 2. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
The super typhoon is projected to make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday morning or afternoon, then “cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan before emerging over the sea east of Taiwan” on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, October 3.
Then it may move northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR on Thursday afternoon or evening. Outside PAR, it could turn northwest on Friday, October 4, over the East China Sea.
In terms of intensity, the weather bureau said Julian “still has a window for brief intensification in the next 24 hours.” But due to Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, it could weaken back into a typhoon on Wednesday and subsequently into a severe tropical storm on Thursday.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
