MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Julian (Krathon) started to slowly recurve north northwest right outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon, October 1.
Julian’s location hardly changed from Tuesday morning due to its slow movement. As of 4 pm, it was spotted 245 kilometers west of Itbayat, Batanes.
The super typhoon left PAR at 9 am on Tuesday, but it is expected to reenter on Wednesday, October 2, and head for Taiwan. Taiwan is within PAR.
So far, Julian still has maximum sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.
It did not make landfall in the Philippines, but passed very close to extreme Northern Luzon and has been bringing rain and winds the past few days.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm on Tuesday that Julian will continue to trigger moderate to heavy rain and strong winds in parts of Northern Luzon.
From Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, there will still be moderate to heavy rain (50 to 100 millimeters) in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte. Floods and landslides remain possible in the next 24 hours.
The trough or extension of the super typhoon may still cause scattered rain and thunderstorms in other parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon, too.
The Davao Region, Soccsksargen, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao will likewise have scattered rain and thunderstorms, but due to the easterlies or warm winds coming from the Pacific Ocean, and not Julian.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will only have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, also not linked to the super typhoon.
Meanwhile, Signal No. 2 has been lifted as of 5 pm on Tuesday, but the following areas are under Signal No. 1 due to strong winds from Julian:
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- northern and western parts of Pangasinan (Lingayen, Alaminos City, Anda, San Fabian, Mangaldan, Burgos, Dagupan City, Bolinao, Sual, Labrador, Bani, Pozorrubio, Mabini, Binmaley, San Jacinto, Bugallon, Infanta, Agno, Calasiao, Dasol, Sison)
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Benguet
- Batanes
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- northern and western parts of Isabela (Cabagan, Tumauini, Ilagan City, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Alicia, San Mateo, Aurora, Quezon, Ramon, Naguilian, Roxas, Luna, Cauayan City, Angadanan, Santiago City, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Quirino, Gamu, San Isidro, Mallig, Cordon, Burgos, Maconacon, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Benito Soliven)
- northwestern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Quezon, Solano, Villaverde, Ambaguio, Bayombong, Bambang, Kayapa)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Julian was Signal No. 4 in Batanes and part of Babuyan Islands.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the super typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Zambales
Wednesday, October 2
- Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela
Thursday, October 3
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands
For coastal waters, very rough seas are seen in the seaboard of Batanes (waves up to 6 meters high) as well as the seaboards of Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas are expected in the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the remaining seaboards of the Ilocos Region and the seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 3 meters high), and the seaboard of Zambales, the seaboard of Isabela, and the seaboard of northern Aurora (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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PAGASA expects Julian to keep recurving “towards the sea southwest of Taiwan” until Wednesday morning, then make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday afternoon.
It will “cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan before emerging over the sea east of Taiwan” on Thursday morning, October 3.
Then it may move northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR — for the second and final time — on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, October 4.
Outside PAR, it could turn northwest over the East China Sea from Friday evening to early Saturday morning, October 5.
The weather bureau reiterated, however, that “sudden” changes in Julian’s forecast track are likely.
In terms of intensity, PAGASA said Julian “still has a window for brief intensification in the next 12 hours.” But due to Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, it could weaken back into a typhoon on Wednesday and subsequently into a severe tropical storm on Thursday afternoon or evening.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
