The results of the latest senatorial surveys of the Philippines’ top two pollsters — Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia — were publicly released on October 1, Tuesday, the first day of the filing of certificates of candidacy for the 2025 midterm elections.
The results were similar in terms of who would make it to the top 12 if the senatorial race were held during the survey period. Former senator Tito Sotto, incumbent re-electionist Senator Pia Cayetano, and former president Rodrigo Duterte are likely to do well. Both surveys had former Social Welfare secretary and ACT-CIS Party-list Representative Erwin Tulfo as number one.
One striking difference, however, is that Erwin’s brother, Ben, who will also be running in the 2025 senatorial race, isn’t in the SWS’ top 12 but he’s in second spot in the Pulse Asia survey.
Other differences:
- Senator Christopher “Bong” Go ranked 11th to 13th in the SWS survey but 4th to 9th in the Pulse Asia survey
- Congresswoman Camille Villar was ranked 13th to 20th in Pulse Asia but was 8th in SWS
- Senator Francis Tolentino was 14th in the SWS survey but a far 20th to 30th in the Pulse Asia survey.
Why these differences?
That’s because of the circumstances and methodology of the two surveys.
First, the SWS survey result was an additional question to the SWS’ regular national Social Weather survey. It was commissioned by think tank Stratbase Consultancy, which sent out a press release on Tuesday, prompting SWS to explain the survey on its website.
“The national Social Weather Survey of September 14-23, 2024 contained a question commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy on voting preferences for Senators in the 2025 elections,” the SWS said.
This is also called a “rider” question and was paid for by Stratbase. That’s one of the ways SWS is able to conduct its surveys, by generating income from rider questions, especially during elections.
The Pulse Asia survey, on the other hand, is an Ulat ng Bayan survey. The pollster had previously explained that its Ulat ng Bayan series is non-commissioned.
Second, the period of the surveys was different.
The SWS survey was from September 14 to 23, 2024. The Pulse Asia survey was from September 6 to 13 or at least 8 days earlier than the SWS survey.
A survey is said to be a snapshot of public sentiment which can be influenced by events. A classic example is the support gained by then-senator Benigno Aquino III after his mother, Cory, died on August 1, 2009, allowing him to get voter support and eventually win in the May 2010 presidential elections, defeating early favorites Joseph Estrada and Manny Villar.
Third, and this is particularly important, the lists of senators shown to respondents in the two suveys were different.
In SWS’ technical details explaining the senatorial survey after Stratbase released it to the public, its list had a total of 40 names in alphabetical order and the list DID NOT have Ben Tulfo on it.
Pulse Asia’s survey, on the other hand, had at least 74 names on the list, nearly twice as many as the Stratbase-commissioned SWS survey.
Having more names on the list can explain the big difference in being within or close to the so-called Magic 12 or not. If respondents are given more choices, this can either push up or pull down the names on the list and vice-versa.
Fourth, the sample sizes of the two surveys were also different.
SWS’ sample size was 1,500 adults nationwide while Pulse Asia’s sample size was 2,400. Pollsters will tell you that it’s not the size of the sample that determines the quality or accuracy of the survey but its representativeness. The sample size must reflect the characteristics of the voting population, as shown below in SWS’ sample.
The easiest way to understand this is, if the sample had 10,000 respondents but included only women, it would not reflect the reality that women represent around half of the Philippine population. Or, if the sample had 1 million respondents but only those in Mindanao were interviewed, it would not be representative enough.
A frequently used analogy for this is soup. You don’t have to finish the soup to know what it tastes like, you just need to have a spoonful of soup. The soup, however, must have the right ingredients.
Pulse Asia’s survey had a plus/minus error margin of 2%; SWS’ survey had a slightly higher error margin of plus/minus 2.5%
Fifth, the questions were also phrased differently but only slightly:
Pulse Asia: Malayu-layo pa po ngunit mayroon na ring mga taong interesado sa darating na pambansang eleksiyon sa Mayo 2025, kung saan ang ating kababayan ay boboto para sa 12 senador at iba pang mga opisyal ng pamahalaan. Nais po sana naming tanungin kayo sa paksang ito. May ilang pong mga tao na aming ikokonsulta sa inyo tungkol sa kanilang posibleng paglahok sa eleksiyon ng Mayo 2025.
(It is still some time from now but there are already some people who are interested in the coming national elections in May 2025, where our people will elect 12 senators and other government officials. We would like to ask you about this topic. There are some people we would like to consult you about regarding their possible participation in the May 2025 elections.)
Kung ang eleksiyon sa May 2025 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusuond na personalidad ang inyong iboboto bilang senador? Maari kayong pumili ng 12 pangalan. The respondent was then shown the list.
(If the May 2025 elections were to be held today, whom of the following personalities would you vote for as SENATOR? You may choose as many as 12 names.)
SWS: “Narito po ang listahan ng mga pangalan ng mga kandidato para sa mga SENADOR NG PILIPINAS. Kung ang eleksiyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang mga SENADOR NG PILIPINAS? Maaari po kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. (SHOW LIST) [Here is a list of names of candidates for SENATORS OF THE PHILIPPINES. If elections were to take place today, whom would you most probably vote for as SENATORS OF THE PHILIPPINES? You can mention up to 12 names. (SHOW LIST)]”
For parity’s sake, the respondent was allowed to read all names on the list first so that he or she would know all of those on the list.
Takeaways
What’s clear from both surveys is that the administration slate has a clear edge with 10 of its 12 candidates (if Imee is included) likely to win, if elections were held during the period in the SWS survey, and at least 8 or 9 administration candidates in the Pulse Asia survey.
If former president Rodrigo Duterte decides to join the senatorial race, the Duterte group — which includes incumbent senators Ronald dela Rosa and Bong Go — has a shot at winning three seats.
The Liberal Party candidates will have to work hard to get in the winning circle with former senator Kiko Pangilinan having a slightly better shot than former senator Bam Aquino.
What’s also important in surveys is to look at momentum. Are candidates gaining or falling behind? Based on the Pulse Asia survey, which had its senatorial survey last June, the following clearly have a momentum in their campaigns:
- Makati City Mayor Abby Binay gained 18-percentage points from June to September 2024, from 18.9% to 37.5%, as voters learned that she was running. She was ranked 4th to 9th in September.
- Bam Aquino gained 6.5 points, from 12.5% in June to 19% in September; his rank went up from 24th-32nd place to 14th to 23rd.
- Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte also improved his score by 4.2 points, from 14.9% in June to 19.1% in September. He was within striking distance of the top 12 as he ranked 14th to 23rd in Pulse Asia’s September survey. This could be a factor in his decision whether to join the senatorial race or just have one strong candidate in the person of his father.
- In the SWS survey, Camille Villar gained 11 points, from 10% in March to 21% in September. She apparently was not yet included in Pulse Asia’s June survey.
- Interior Secretary Benjamin Abalos III gained 8 points in the SWS survey (from March to September) in a field of 40. He went up 4.7 points in the Pulse Asia survey (from June to September). His ranking was 18th to 28th in Pulse Asia and 16th to 17th in SWS.
- Former senator Gringo Honasan climbed nearly 3 points from 18.6% to 21.5% in the Pulse Asia survey, but fell 5 points in SWS.
Inversely, campaign strategists worry if a candidate is losing momentum as reflected in the surveys.
The following candidates had slight drops in support:
- In the Pulse Asia survey, incumbent reelectionist Dela Rosa declined by 5.1 points, from 31.3% in June to 26.2% in September. His ranking slid from 7th to 12th in June to 11th to 14th in September. This might spell trouble for Dela Rosa since he is no longer part of the administration ticket, unlike in his first run in 2019.
- Incumbent reelectionist Senator Imee Marcos had a 4-point drop in the Pulse Asia survey, from 33.8% in June to 29.8% in September. Her ranking went down from 6th to 11th to 10th to 12th place. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., however, has vowed to still support his eldest sister, at least, officially.
- Incumbent reelectionist Senator Francis Tolentino also had a 4.1-point drop in the Pulse Asia survey, from 17.6% in June to 13.5% in September. His ranking fell from 15th to 25th to 20th to 30th.
It’s still a long way to go, however, to election day in May 2025, with around 8 months left for the candidates to convince voters. – Rappler.com
