COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — First off, weather does not predict the outcome of who will be the next president. But sifting through data, I did find a fun coincidence that has occurred since 1972: rainfall.
What Columbus weather tells us about the next President
Looking at the winners of every presidential election since 1972, the one piece of data that showed consistency is rainfall. Yes, rainfall, specifically in Columbus. Now it is true that Ohio as a state has not always voted for the winner of the election. It is also true that rainfall in Columbus has not always predicted the winner, either. In fact, Richard Nixon was the last Republican to win in 1968 when it was dry on Election Day. John Kennedy in 1960 was the last Democrat to win the election when it rained in Columbus on Election Day.
But since 1972, when it rains on Election Day in Columbus, the Republican candidate for president has won. If it is dry, the Democrat has won. And this is an all-or-nothing trend, too! When Ronald Reagan had his blowout 525 electoral votes in 1984, only 0.02 of an inch of rain fell in Columbus. Nixon in 1972 had five fewer electoral votes (520), but 1.16 inches of rain fell.
Below is chart of weather conditions since 1960 for Columbus area:
| Election Date | High | Low | Rainfall |
| 11/3/2020 | 62° | 32° | |
| 11/8/2016 | 61° | 40° | 0.18″ |
| 11/6/2012 | 49° | 30° | |
| 11/4/2008 | 72° | 44° | |
| 11/2/2004 | 68° | 48° | 0.52″ |
| 11/7/2000 | 67° | 47° | 0.15″ |
| 11/5/1996 | 56° | 46° | |
| 11/3/1992 | 69° | 43° | |
| 11/8/1988 | 51° | 37° | 0.16″ |
| 11/6/1984 | 46° | 30° | 0.02″ |
| 11/4/1980 | 59° | 46° | 0.07″ |
| 11/2/1976 | 54° | 28° | |
| 11/7/1972 | 53° | 47° | 1.16″ |
| 11/5/1968 | 62° | 45° | |
| 11/3/1964 | 74° | 43° | |
| 11/8/1960 | 53° | 28° | 0.05″ |
What the forecast looks like for Tuesday
In Columbus, we are going to have another incredible stretch of warm weather next week. In fact, highs could range into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, putting them up near the top three warmest on record for the date. The third warmest was in 2015 at 75 degrees, and the record is 77 degrees set in 2022. As far as rainfall, which as I mentioned above, has been the predictor (at least since 1972), it has rained 36% of the time on Nov. 5 since records have been kept. If we just go back to 1972, it has rained 31% of the time on Nov. 5.
At this point, it appears there is an increasing chance of rain showers on Tuesday later in the day. The chance is not a slam dunk on Tuesday, or none at all. It’s just slightly higher (~40% on Tuesday) than the historical 31%-36% number as a cold front looks to be on track to arrive Wednesday next week, and we could have some isolated to scattered activity ahead of it.
Bottom line, rain chances will be close, and this is all just a fun coincidence that has occurred since 1972. Good or bad weather can impact anything anyone decides to do on any given day, voting included.
