MANILA, Philippines — Over the weekend, as a new Iowa poll put United States Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former president Donald Trump in a state that was thought of as “trending deeply Republican in recent years,” both group and one-on-one chats were abuzz with excitement and trepidation. 

At the end of most of these conversations, the joke was: Affected tayo? American voter ‘yan? (Why are we so affected? As if we’re Americans ourselves.) 

The 2024 US presidential elections are likely to go down the wire, with analysts and experts (people who know what they’re talking about) repeatedly warning that anyone who thinks they know who’ll win doesn’t know what they’re talking about. 

At this rate (and we’ve only barely a day to go), it’ll be a coin toss for either candidate. 

If you’re lost in the sauce, don’t worry too much about it. The American electoral system is dizzying to understand and between drama here over a Vice President who ranted and raved for two hours, her former president father who made a show out of a Senate hearing, and the devastation storms have left across the country, it’s hard to allocate just a little more pake (care) into a political system miles away from our shores. 

But hear me out. Whether we like it or not, whoever takes over US President Joe Biden’s post (peacefully) in January 2025 will affect not only the United States but its allies (including the Philippines), the region, and the greater Indo-Pacific. 

We’ve laid out our case in a quick vertical video on the three (main) reasons why you should care, but I thought it’d be useful to flesh it out even more here. 

So from three, here’s five (still main) reasons why Filipinos should allocate your precious pake (or attention) to the results of the November 5 vote in the US. 

A little thing called Mutual Defense 

That the Australia-based Lowy Institute considers the Philippines a middle power in the region is mostly due to its defense and security ties — those ties, of course, are largely anchored on its Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with its former colonizer, the United States. The “hyperdrive” in bilateral ties between the US and the Philippines sounds like diplomatic hype, but it really is not. 

In a span of two-and-a-half years, the two countries have managed to agree to four new sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), guidelines for the MDT, create a trilateral arrangement alongside Japan, launch joint air and sea exercises over the West Philippine Sea (called the Maritime Cooperative Activity), and plan bigger and bigger Balikatans.  

When Manila hosted a 2+2 bilateral meeting between foreign affairs and defense chiefs, the United States announced $500 million in foreign military financing over five to 10 years. 

This isn’t about magnanimity — it’s about the US realizing and making the most out of the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration’s decision to pivot back to its Western treaty-ally, in stark contrast to the previous Duterte administration. 

In Washington and in Manila, there is little doubt that the United States would still want to keep close ties with the Philippines — even if Trump takes over. But there are worries over whether the pace at which the relationship has been evolving will remain the same. 

On the bright side, our current ambassador to Washington DC, presidential cousin Jose Manuel Romualdez, is more than familiar with keeping bilateral ties healthy (or as healthy as they could be) under a Trump presidency. He was former president Rodrigo Duterte’s envoy to the US, too. 

Romualdez, in a September interview with Rappler editor-at-large Marites Vitug, said he doesn’t see a change in Indo-Pacific strategy, whether it’s Trump or Harris who takes over.

We’re also told that people in the Trump team (those who have not left post-January 6, obviously) have also kept good ties with Filipinos contacts, of both official and informal backgrounds. 

It’s definitely hard to imagine a Harris presidency changing course from the bilateral gains under Biden. But would Trump — or at least the people around him — have the same enthusiasm? 

Superpower relations 

The United States’ relationship with China has long been tense. It was tense under Trump, and continued to be tense even under Biden. More recently, however, there have been attempts by both Washington DC and Beijing to at least reopen communication channels — between leaders and, perhaps more urgently, military commanders. 

The US Indo-Pacific Command’s Admiral Samuel Paparo and People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Southern Theater Command chief General Wu Yanan recently spoke to each other via video conference. These communication channels are good news not just for the two countries, but every other nation in the Indo-Pacific. After all, tension between two competing superpowers affects us all. 

In Trump’s America First, where does Southeast Asia and the bigger Indo-Pacific lie? The America First Policy Institute, reported to be even more influential than the Heritage Foundation in a possible second Trump administration, talks mostly about China competition in its Asia discussion. 

This is, perhaps, also proof of just how important it is for the Philippines to grow its relationship with countries that are not the United States. Marcos has said it himself — superpowers should not be dictating the dynamics in the region. 

The Filipino diaspora

There are around 4.1 million Filipino Americans living in the United States as of 2022.

Should Trump follow through with a campaign promise to roundup illegal immigrants and deport them, it’s hard to imagine that not a lot of our kababayan will find themselves affected by such a policy. 

After all, back in 2017, the Philippines had to prepare to bring home some 10,000 Filipinos who risked deportation by Trump’s policies then. 

But whoever will win in this election, expect changes in immigration policy. It’s a gut issue in the United States, especially in border states. Biden himself continued restrictions on asylum seekers — a policy that was first implemented by Trump. 

Forbes simplifies it this way: for Trump, the emphasis will be on deportation. Under a Harris administration, immigration policy would focus on “establishing legal pathways for eligible immigrants.” 

Trade and… investments in the Philippines?   

Recently, 23 American Nobel prize winners for economics endorsed Harris’ economic agenda as “vastly superior” to Trump’s. The Conversation summarizes the two candidates’ policies in this piece here.

But what we, here in Manila, can think about is this: would a Trump or a Harris administration invest more (or at least encourage the private sector) in the Philippines? 

It would be short-sighted to limit the bilateral relationship between the US and the Philippines to defense and security ties. Security, after all, includes economic security. The US (alongside Japan) has touted the Luzon Economic Corridor as among its major investments in the Philippines. 

Under Biden, we saw a high-level delegation, led by no less than Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, visit the Philippines. Could we expect the same level of interest and effort under a Harris or Trump presidency? 

The rise of authoritarianism

Donald Trump has been called a fascist — not just by critics — but by his former deputies, including former chief of staff John Kelly and his chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. Recall, of course, the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. 

Harris — and Biden before her — have warned that Trump is a threat to American democracy. 

It’s not a cyclical threat but an existential one.

Globally, there is the rise of the strongman and of illiberal democracy. The Philippines was among the first who was afflicted with this “trend” — the effects of six years under Duterte is something we are still reeling from to this day.  

Vox’s The Gray Area podcast asks: “Is America collapsing like ancient Rome?” 

After all, it’s not just about the policies that a Harris or a Trump president would implement. We must think about what they stand for. 

Then buckle up. Once we’re done dealing with the twists, turns, and acid reflux of November 2024 — there’s another roller coaster we must prepare for: the 2025 midterm elections, and the 2028 presidential elections after that. – Rappler.com